They’ve got at least one thing in common: judging success immediately is impossible, little more than a guess.
No one really knows how any of these draft picks will turn out. Greg Oden was the consensus number one a few years ago…and has played 80 games, with limited minutes, in three years, because of injuries.
Unlike (say) picking the best two or three films made in any given year, judging success in international relations is always much more complicated, dependent on many factors, and really only possible in hindsight. Getting North Korea, Palestinians, or the French to sign a treaty may be impressive for a moment or a year. It may have little impact in the long run, and in fact many efforts undertaken for the sake of peace work against the creation of peace. See Chamberlain, Neville.
Same with Christian ministry. It’s very difficult to assess how well someone has done in their service year-to-year. Attendance, for instance, doesn’t get it covered: what if you made 10,000 shallow, fruitless disciples, while an unheralded preacher down the road patiently helped endow a handful of believers with mature, radical Christian character?
In all three spheres, it’s trial by fire that reveals true success. That’s why Paul points to a future analysis of ministry success (and failure):
In that Day (of judgment) the work of each bulider will become visible, revealed with fire, and the fire will test what sort of work each has done. If what has been built on the foundation survives, the builder will receive a reward. If the work is burned up, the builder will suffer loss; the builder will be saved, but only as through fire.